A longstanding goal in computational educational research is to develop explainable knowledge tracing (KT) models. Deep Knowledge Tracing (DKT), which leverages a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to predict student knowledge and performance on exercises, has been proposed as a major advancement over traditional KT methods. Several studies suggest that its performance gains stem from its ability to model bidirectional relationships between different knowledge components (KCs) within a course, enabling the inference of a student's understanding of one KC from their performance on others. In this paper, we challenge this prevailing explanation and demonstrate that DKT's strength lies in its implicit ability to model prerequisite relationships as a causal structure, rather than bidirectional relationships. By pruning exercise relation graphs into Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and training DKT on causal subsets of the Assistments dataset, we show that DKT's predictive capabilities align strongly with these causal structures. Furthermore, we propose an alternative method for extracting exercise relation DAGs using DKT's learned representations and provide empirical evidence supporting our claim. Our findings suggest that DKT's effectiveness is largely driven by its capacity to approximate causal dependencies between KCs rather than simple relational mappings.

Knowledge Tracing (KT) has been an established problem in the educational data mining field for decades, and it is commonly assumed that the underlying learning process being modeled remains static. Given the ever-changing landscape of online learning platforms (OLPs), we investigate how concept drift and changing student populations can impact student behavior within an OLP through testing model performance both within a single academic year and across multiple academic years. Four well-studied KT models were applied to five academic years of data to assess how susceptible KT models are to concept drift. Through our analysis, we find that all four families of KT models can exhibit degraded performance, Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) remains the most stable KT model when applied to newer data, while more complex, attention based models lose predictive power significantly faster.

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Knowledge tracing, where a machine models the knowledge of a student as they interact with coursework, is an established and significantly unsolved problem in computer supported education.In this paper we explore the benefit of using recurrent neural networks to model student learning.This family of models have important advantages over current state of the art methods in that they do not require the explicit encoding of human domain knowledge,and have a far more flexible functional form which can capture substantially more complex student interactions.We show that these neural networks outperform the current state of the art in prediction on real student data,while allowing straightforward interpretation and discovery of structure in the curriculum.These results suggest a promising new line of research for knowledge tracing.

Deep Knowledge Tracing (DKT) models student learning behavior by using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) to predict future performance based on historical interaction data. However, the original implementation relied on standard RNNs in the Lua-based Torch framework, which limited extensibility and reproducibility. In this work, we revisit the DKT model from two perspectives: architectural improvements and optimization efficiency. First, we enhance the model using gated recurrent units, specifically Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), which better capture long-term dependencies and help mitigate vanishing gradient issues. Second, we re-implement DKT using the PyTorch framework, enabling a modular and accessible infrastructure compatible with modern deep learning workflows. We also benchmark several optimization algorithms SGD, RMSProp, Adagrad, Adam, and AdamW to evaluate their impact on convergence speed and predictive accuracy in educational modeling tasks. Experiments on the Synthetic-5 and Khan Academy datasets show that GRUs and LSTMs achieve higher accuracy and improved training stability compared to basic RNNs, while adaptive optimizers such as Adam and AdamW consistently outperform SGD in both early-stage learning and final model performance. Our open-source PyTorch implementation provides a reproducible and extensible foundation for future research in neural knowledge tracing and personalized learning systems.

Knowledge tracing (KT) models aim to predict students' future performance based on their historical interactions. Most existing KT models rely exclusively on human-defined knowledge concepts (KCs) associated with exercises. As a result, the effectiveness of these models is highly dependent on the quality and completeness of the predefined KCs. Human errors in labeling and the cost of covering all potential underlying KCs can limit model performance. In this paper, we propose a KT model, Sparse Binary Representation KT (SBRKT), that generates new KC labels, referred to as auxiliary KCs, which can augment the predefined KCs to address the limitations of relying solely on human-defined KCs. These are learned through a binary vector representation, where each bit indicates the presence (one) or absence (zero) of an auxiliary KC. The resulting discrete representation allows these auxiliary KCs to be utilized in training any KT model that incorporates KCs. Unlike pre-trained dense embeddings, which are limited to models designed to accept such vectors, our discrete representations are compatible with both classical models, such as Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT), and modern deep learning approaches. To generate this discrete representation, SBRKT employs a binarization method that learns a sparse representation, fully trainable via stochastic gradient descent. Additionally, SBRKT incorporates a recurrent neural network (RNN) to capture temporal dynamics and predict future student responses by effectively combining the auxiliary and predefined KCs. Experimental results demonstrate that SBRKT outperforms the tested baselines on several datasets and achieves competitive performance on others. Furthermore, incorporating the learned auxiliary KCs consistently enhances the performance of BKT across all tested datasets.

Personalized adaptive learning (PAL) stands out by closely monitoring individual students' progress and tailoring their learning paths to their unique knowledge and needs. A crucial technique for effective PAL implementation is knowledge tracing, which models students' evolving knowledge to predict their future performance. Recent advancements in deep learning have significantly enhanced knowledge tracing through Deep Knowledge Tracing (DKT). However, there is limited research on DKT for Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) education at Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs). This study builds a comprehensive dataset to investigate DKT for implementing PAL in STEM education at HBCUs, utilizing multiple state-of-the-art (SOTA) DKT models to examine knowledge tracing performance. The dataset includes 352,148 learning records for 17,181 undergraduate students across eight colleges at Prairie View A&M University (PVAMU). The SOTA DKT models employed include DKT, DKT+, DKVMN, SAKT, and KQN. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of DKT models in accurately predicting students' academic outcomes. Specifically, the SAKT and KQN models outperform others in terms of accuracy and AUC. These findings have significant implications for faculty members and academic advisors, providing valuable insights for identifying students at risk of academic underperformance before the end of the semester. Furthermore, this allows for proactive interventions to support students' academic progress, potentially enhancing student retention and graduation rates.

In contrast to pedagogies like evidence-based teaching, personalized adaptive learning (PAL) distinguishes itself by closely monitoring the progress of individual students and tailoring the learning path to their unique knowledge and requirements. A crucial technique for effective PAL implementation is knowledge tracing, which models students' evolving knowledge to predict their future performance. Based on these predictions, personalized recommendations for resources and learning paths can be made to meet individual needs. Recent advancements in deep learning have successfully enhanced knowledge tracking through Deep Knowledge Tracing (DKT). This paper introduces generative AI models to further enhance DKT. Generative AI models, rooted in deep learning, are trained to generate synthetic data, addressing data scarcity challenges in various applications across fields such as natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV). This study aims to tackle data shortage issues in student learning records to enhance DKT performance for PAL. Specifically, it employs TabDDPM, a diffusion model, to generate synthetic educational records to augment training data for enhancing DKT. The proposed method's effectiveness is validated through extensive experiments on ASSISTments datasets. The experimental results demonstrate that the AI-generated data by TabDDPM significantly improves DKT performance, particularly in scenarios with small data for training and large data for testing.

Knowledge tracing (KT) serves as a primary part of intelligent education systems. Most current KTs either rely on expert judgments or only exploit a single network structure, which affects the full expression of learning features. To adequately mine features of students' learning process, Deep Knowledge Tracing Based on Spatial and Temporal Deep Representation Learning for Learning Performance Prediction (DKT-STDRL) is proposed in this paper. DKT-STDRL extracts spatial features from students' learning history sequence, and then further extracts temporal features to extract deeper hidden information. Specifically, firstly, the DKT-STDRL model uses CNN to extract the spatial feature information of students' exercise sequences. Then, the spatial features are connected with the original students' exercise features as joint learning features. Then, the joint features are input into the BiLSTM part. Finally, the BiLSTM part extracts the temporal features from the joint learning features to obtain the prediction information of whether the students answer correctly at the next time step. Experiments on the public education datasets ASSISTment2009, ASSISTment2015, Synthetic-5, ASSISTchall, and Statics2011 prove that DKT-STDRL can achieve better prediction effects than DKT and CKT.

Abstract: Knowledge tracing (KT) models are a popular approach for predicting students' future performance at practice problems using their prior attempts. Though many innovations have been made in KT, most models including the state-of-the-art Deep KT (DKT) mainly leverage each student's response either as correct or incorrect, ignoring its content. In this work, we propose Code-based Deep Knowledge Tracing (Code-DKT), a model that uses an attention mechanism to automatically extract and select domain-specific code features to extend DKT. We compared the effectiveness of Code-DKT against Bayesian and Deep Knowledge Tracing (BKT and DKT) on a dataset from a class of 50 students attempting to solve 5 introductory programming assignments. Our results show that Code-DKT consistently outperforms DKT by 3.07–4.00%